Track record · closed signal

CareTrust REIT, Inc. (CTRE) — closed signal from February 5, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 6, 2026 — +5.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

CTRE price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$36.20 – $37.80Entry zone — fair-value band

$37.29Published — price the day we called it

$41.76Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$41.72Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$39.48Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 99% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

+5.9%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+11.9%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+8.6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$39.48

last close inside the window, ended May 6, 2026

Peak price

$41.72

peak on February 27, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published February 5, 2026

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$41.76

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$36.20 – $37.80

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$37.29

published February 5, 2026

Confidence

84%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

CareTrust is a relatively steady real-estate investment that pays rent from healthcare operators. The stock fell enough to lower downside risk and the company will report results and host a call in mid-February, which could change expectations about operator strength, rent trends, and future deals. Trading volume is light, so keep position size modest; the income and clear timing make this suitable for a short-term, three-month trade focused on income and a possible rebound.

Primary drivers

Mid-February report and call can change investor expectations quickly
Reliable cash rent from healthcare properties and steady dividend appeal
Recent pullback creates a lower-risk entry for a rebound
Lower volatility stock can stabilize a riskier portfolio

How it played out

CTRE: thesis nearly reached but missed target

Lyra published CTRE on 2026-02-05 at 37.29. The thesis expected 12% growth, with a target of 41.76. It pointed to the mid-February report and call, reliable cash rent from healthcare properties, steady dividend appeal, a recent pullback, and lower volatility as the main drivers.

Inside the window, CTRE rose to 41.72 on 2026-02-27, with a peak gain of 11.9%. It stayed below the target. By 2026-05-06, it ended at 39.48. The thesis partially played out, but the published target was never reached.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All CTRE signals