Track record · closed signal

Amgen Inc. (AMGN) — closed signal from February 4, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 5, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

AMGN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$351.34 Published $386.47 Target $329.59 Window close $391.29 Peak
$345.00 – $356.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$351.34Published — price the day we called it
$386.47Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$391.29Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$329.59Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 21 days.

Peak price
$391.29
peak on March 2, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+11.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$329.59
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
21
Window
February 4, 2026 – May 5, 2026

The thesis — published February 4, 2026

Predicted growth
+10%
over the measurement window
Target price
$386.47
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$345.00 – $356.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$351.34
published February 4, 2026
Confidence
70%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Amgen reported stronger-than-expected results and management kept guidance steady. That creates a short-term chance for the stock to bounce if investors move back into healthcare. The plan is tactical: buy near likely support after weakness, take profits quickly on sharp rebounds, and avoid long-term holds because drug news can swing the stock.

Primary drivers

  • Stronger-than-expected results can steady sentiment
  • Multiple products reduce dependence on one drug
  • Investor rotation into healthcare can lift the stock
  • Clinical or guidance headlines can cause big moves

How it played out

AMGN: target reached in 21 days

Lyra published AMGN at $351.34 on 2026-02-04 with 10% expected growth. The target was $386.47. The thesis pointed to stronger-than-expected results, steady guidance, a broader product base, possible investor rotation into healthcare, and the risk that clinical or guidance headlines could move the stock sharply.

Inside the window, AMGN reached a $391.29 peak on 2026-03-02. That was above the $386.47 target, and the target was reached in 21 days. The peak gain was 11.4%. By 2026-05-05, the stock ended at $329.59. The published thesis played out, but the move did not hold through the end of the window.

What happened during the window

On 2026-04-30, Amgen reported first-quarter profit of $1.82 billion and revenue of $8.62 billion. The company also said it projected 2026 revenue of $37.1 billion to $38.5 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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