Track record · closed signal

T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) — closed signal from July 20, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 18, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

TMUS price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$225.30 Published $263.61 Target $228.20 Window close $259.36 Peak
$221.22 – $224.17Entry zone — fair-value band
$225.30Published — price the day we called it
$263.61Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$259.36Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$228.20Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$259.36
peak on August 20, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+15.1%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$228.20
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
July 20, 2025 – October 18, 2025

The thesis — published July 20, 2025

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$263.61
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$221.22 – $224.17
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$225.30
published July 20, 2025
Confidence
72%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Shares of T-Mobile have slipped roughly 10%, landing near $225-$228, the lower end of the stock's recent trading zone. Morgan Stanley just raised its price goal to $280 ahead of the July 25 earnings report, pointing to brisk growth in new 5G customers and extra cash the company expects to keep after bills are paid. Surveys show optimism remains high, so many pros view the dip as routine and think the price may bounce back to about $245-$255 within three months.

Primary drivers

  • Big bank now sees $280 price, showing faith that 5G customer sign-ups will speed up.
  • Price is seen as cheaply valued after recent slide, just ahead of second-quarter news.
  • Market surveys show large investors stay confident even while the stock drifts down.
  • Company forecasts extra cash by late 2025 to fund buybacks and lift the share price.

How it played out

TMUS: rose but stayed below the target

Lyra published TMUS at $225.30 on July 20, 2025, looking for 18% growth to $263.61 in a short-term window. The thesis pointed to a recent slide of roughly 10%, a Morgan Stanley price goal of $280, expected strength in 5G customer sign-ups, investor confidence, and extra cash by late 2025 for buybacks.

Inside the window, TMUS rose to a peak of $259.36 on August 20, 2025. That was a 15.1% gain, but it stayed below the $263.61 target. It ended the window at $228.20. The thesis partially played out. The rebound came close, but it never got there.

What happened during the window

On July 23, 2025, T-Mobile reported second-quarter results, including 830,000 net postpaid wireless phone additions and revenue of $21.1 billion. The company also raised its full-year guidance.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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