Track record · closed signal

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. (ADR) (MUFG) — closed signal from February 4, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 5, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

MUFG price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$18.86 Published $20.36 Target $17.76 Window close $20.15 Peak
$18.30 – $19.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$18.86Published — price the day we called it
$20.36Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$20.15Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$17.76Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$20.15
peak on February 12, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+6.8%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$17.76
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
Window
February 4, 2026 – May 5, 2026

The thesis — published February 4, 2026

Predicted growth
+8%
over the measurement window
Target price
$20.36
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$18.30 – $19.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$18.86
published February 4, 2026
Confidence
78%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

MUFG showed small profit gains and confirmed its targets and dividend plan. That message of steadiness can draw investors looking for safer financial stocks. Over the next 0-3 months expect gradual upward movement rather than a fast jump. Buy on small dips and watch global interest rate moves or sudden drops in risk appetite; gains are likely modest but fairly stable.

Primary drivers

  • Confirmed targets and dividend plan give investors confidence
  • Being seen as stable can pull money from other sectors
  • Results are linked to changes in global interest rates
  • Less volatile than higher-risk banks and financials

How it played out

MUFG: the target was not reached

Lyra published MUFG at 18.86 on 2026-02-04. The thesis expected 8% growth over a short-term window, with gradual upward movement rather than a fast jump. It pointed to confirmed targets and a dividend plan, steadiness for investors looking at financial stocks, global interest-rate sensitivity, and lower volatility than higher-risk banks and financials.

Inside the window from 2026-02-04 to 2026-05-05, MUFG rose to 20.15 on 2026-02-12, a 6.8% peak gain. That stayed below the 20.36 target. It never got there. The signal ended at 17.76, so the thesis partially played out early but missed the target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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