Track record · closed signal

Banco Santander, S.A. (ADR) (SAN) — closed signal from February 4, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 5, 2026 — -6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

SAN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$12.65 Published $14.16 Target $11.88 Window close $13.24 Peak
$12.20 – $12.80Entry zone — fair-value band
$12.65Published — price the day we called it
$14.16Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$13.24Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$11.88Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 39% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-6%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+4.7%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+5.8%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$11.88
last close inside the window, ended May 5, 2026
Peak price
$13.24
peak on February 25, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published February 4, 2026

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$14.16
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$12.20 – $12.80
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$12.65
published February 4, 2026
Confidence
69%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Santander reported stronger profits and promised more returns to shareholders, and it announced a big US takeover. That mix can push the stock up short term but also creates uncertainty about fitting the new business in. The UK car-loan provisions are a clear downside risk. Treat this as a short-term trade: buy small near support and get out fast if the rebound fades.

Primary drivers

  • The takeover news can move the stock short term
  • Better earnings and payout plans improve investor mood
  • Cutting costs can help profits and the story
  • UK car-loan provisions could trigger bad headlines

How it played out

SAN: the target was not reached

Lyra published SAN at $12.65 on 2026-02-04 as a short-term idea with 12% expected growth and a $14.16 target. The thesis pointed to takeover news, better earnings, payout plans, cost cuts, and UK car-loan provisions as the main downside risk.

Inside the 2026-02-04 to 2026-05-05 window, SAN rose to $13.24 on 2026-02-25, a 4.7% peak gain. It stayed below the $14.16 target and never reached it. The signal ended at $11.88. The thesis partially played out because there was an early rebound, but the target missed.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-04, The Guardian reported that Santander had signed a $12.2bn takeover of Webster Bank. The same article reported that Santander's UK motor finance provision had reached £461m.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All SAN signals