Track record · closed signal

MGM Resorts International (MGM) — closed signal from February 4, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 5, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

MGM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$38.62 Published $44.41 Target $37.91 Window close $40.94 Peak
$37.50 – $39.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$38.62Published — price the day we called it
$44.41Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$40.94Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$37.91Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 40% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$40.94
peak on April 27, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$37.91
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
February 4, 2026 – May 5, 2026

The thesis — published February 4, 2026

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$44.41
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$37.50 – $39.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$38.62
published February 4, 2026
Confidence
81%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

MGM looks like it could keep doing well short-term because travel and gambling demand are improving, especially in Macau and at Asian properties. News about financing the Cosmopolitan adds to the story that the company has valuable assets. However, travel worries can reverse gains quickly, so plan to buy on dips and sell some into sudden price spikes.

Primary drivers

  • More visitors to Macau is boosting short-term gambling demand
  • Strong results from Asian properties help steady cash flow
  • Financing for the Cosmopolitan highlights underlying asset value
  • Price swings mean buy in stages and take profits when it jumps

How it played out

MGM: the thesis rose but missed the target

Lyra published MGM at $38.62 on 2026-02-04 with a short-term thesis for 15% expected growth. The thesis pointed to better travel and gambling demand, Macau visitor strength, Asian property results, Cosmopolitan financing, and the risk of sharp price swings.

Inside the window, MGM rose but never reached the $44.41 target. The stock peaked at $40.94 on 2026-04-27, a 6% gain. It ended the window at $37.91. The thesis partially played out on direction at the peak, but it missed the target and finished below the publication price.

What happened during the window

On April 29, 2026, MGM reported first-quarter revenue of $4.45 billion, with MGM China revenue of $1.1 billion. The same report said MGM had signed an agreement earlier in April 2026 with IAC to limit its voting power.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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