Track record · closed signal

Clearwater Analytics Holdings, Inc. (CWAN) — closed signal from February 4, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 5, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

CWAN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$23.70 Published $28.91 Target $24.19 Window close $24.30 Peak
$22.80 – $24.20Entry zone — fair-value band
$23.70Published — price the day we called it
$28.91Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$24.30Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$24.19Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 11% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$24.30
peak on May 1, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+2.5%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$24.19
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
February 4, 2026 – May 5, 2026

The thesis — published February 4, 2026

Predicted growth
+22%
over the measurement window
Target price
$28.91
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$22.80 – $24.20
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$23.70
published February 4, 2026
Confidence
83%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Clearwater reported two big developments: a major insurer chose their platform to modernize operations, and the company added AI features to its risk tools. Together these keep investor attention for the next few months. This is a higher-volatility growth stock, so consider buying only after prices calm and show recovery after dips.

Primary drivers

  • Big enterprise client win shows demand and helps sales grow
  • AI features make the product more attractive to buyers
  • Frequent deal news keeps the stock moving but also makes it jumpy
  • Insurers and managers are shifting to modern digital tools

How it played out

CWAN: target was not reached by May 5

On Feb. 4, Lyra published a short-term CWAN thesis at $23.70 with expected growth of 22%. The thesis pointed to a major insurer choosing Clearwater's platform, added artificial intelligence features in risk tools, frequent deal news, and a shift by insurers and managers toward modern digital tools.

Inside the Feb. 4 to May 5 window, CWAN peaked at $24.30 on May 1. That was a 2.5% gain, but it stayed below the $28.91 target. The stock ended at $24.19. The thesis only partially played out. It never got there.

What happened during the window

On April 23, 2026, the European Commission approved the Warburg Pincus and Permira acquisition of Clearwater Analytics.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All CWAN signals