Track record · closed signal

Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) — closed signal from February 3, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 4, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

PLTR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$154.00 – $160.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$157.69Published — price the day we called it

$186.07Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$165.08Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$146.03Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 26% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$165.08

peak on February 3, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+4.7%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$146.03

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

February 3, 2026 – May 4, 2026

The thesis — published February 3, 2026

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$186.07

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$154.00 – $160.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$157.69

published February 3, 2026

Confidence

74%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Palantir jumped after strong quarterly results and a $190 analyst target pushed interest in its AI work. The move came with a price gap, so it's risky to buy right away. Over the next few months, funds may keep buying, helping the stock, but prices can swing quickly if sentiment cools.

Primary drivers

Better-than-expected results led to a sharp price jump
Analyst raise to $190 increased interest in Palantir's AI work
Index and funds may keep buying winners after earnings
High short-term volatility after the gap means caution is needed

How it played out

PLTR: the target was never reached

Lyra published PLTR at $157.69 on February 3, with an expected gain of 18% and a $186.07 target. The thesis pointed to better-than-expected results, a $190 analyst target tied to interest in Palantir's artificial intelligence work, possible fund buying after earnings, and high short-term volatility after the price gap.

Inside the February 3 to May 4 window, PLTR peaked at $165.08 on February 3, a 4.7% gain. It stayed below the $186.07 target and never reached it. By the end of the window, it was at $146.03. The thesis only partially played out.

What happened during the window

On February 3, MarketWatch reported Palantir's fourth-quarter results, including $1.41 billion of revenue and a 70% rise from a year before. On May 4, The Wall Street Journal reported first-quarter results, including $1.63 billion in sales and an 85% year-over-year increase.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All PLTR signals