Clearwater Analytics Holdings, Inc. (CWAN) — closed signal from February 3, 2026
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 4, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 15% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published February 3, 2026
The stock is slightly below the announced buyout price (~$24.55). When a deal like this looks likely to close, the share price tends to move back toward the deal price. Recent takeover reports and the Beacon AI upgrade make the company more attractive to buyers, while an insider sale looks like a tax decision. Expect the gap to narrow over the next few months rather than a big surge.
Primary drivers
- Deal price near $24.55 often pulls the stock upward as the gap shrinks
- Recent takeover coverage increases confidence in a timely deal close
- Beacon AI upgrade makes the company more valuable to a buyer
- Downside is limited unless negative deal news pushes the gap wider
How it played out
CWAN: target was not reached
Lyra published CWAN at $24.09 on February 3, 2026, with expected growth of 6%. The thesis pointed to a buyout price near $24.55, takeover coverage, the Beacon artificial intelligence upgrade, and limited downside unless deal news worsened. The expected move was a narrow gap close, not a big surge.
Inside the window, CWAN peaked at $24.30 on May 1, 2026, for a 0.9% gain. It stayed below the $25.53 target and ended at $24.17 on May 4, 2026. The thesis only partially played out. The stock rose a little, but it never got there.
What happened during the window
On April 23, 2026, the European Commission approved the Warburg Pincus and Permira acquisition of Clearwater after finding no competition concerns in the EEA.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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