The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) — closed signal from July 20, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 18, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 21% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published July 20, 2025
Schwab’s shares hit new highs because its spring sales and profits beat expert forecasts, and Morgan Stanley now sees the stock at $117. Buyer enthusiasm is sky-high, yet the price jumped so fast that waiting for a dip to $92-$96 could offer a safer entry. As the pressure from clients moving cash away fades and new accounts reach records, profits may climb another 20% in the coming quarter.
Primary drivers
- Better-than-expected Q2 results and $117 goal show stronger profit outlook
- Very strong buying interest from big investors after the earnings report
- Fewer customers moving cash lifts profit on deposits and boosts future earnings
- Buying near $94 risks about 5% while aiming for roughly 20% gain into year end
How it played out
SCHW: the target was not reached
Lyra published SCHW at $95.26 with expected growth of 20% and a target of $113.67. The thesis pointed to better-than-expected Q2 results, a $117 outside price goal, strong buying interest after earnings, fewer clients moving cash away, and a preferred entry near $94 with about 5% risk.
Inside the window, SCHW rose to a peak of $99.14 on 2025-08-13, a 4.1% gain. It never reached $113.67. By the end of the window, it was $93.87. The thesis got a small early move, but the published target was missed and the signal ended below the publication price.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-16, Charles Schwab reported third-quarter profit of $2.28 billion, adjusted earnings of $1.31 a share, and revenue of $6.14 billion. The article said analysts had expected $1.25 a share and $6.01 billion of revenue.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
Share this receipt
A scored call, published before the outcome was known. Paste the link anywhere — it unfurls as the card above.
Read the next call before it closes.
This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.