Track record · closed signal

Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) — closed signal from July 20, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 18, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

WFC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$77.27 – $79.22Entry zone — fair-value band

$79.75Published — price the day we called it

$88.33Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$87.01Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$82.84Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 76% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$87.01

peak on October 15, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+9.1%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$82.84

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

July 20, 2025 – October 18, 2025

The thesis — published July 20, 2025

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$88.33

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$77.27 – $79.22

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$79.75

published July 20, 2025

Confidence

78%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

The stock has slipped to $79-$81, an area where it has bounced before. Trading records show more buyers than sellers, suggesting big investors are building positions ahead of the bank’s planned share repurchases once growth limits are lifted. At only 1.2 times its tangible assets and 8.9 times next year’s profit, the price looks modest. A 12% climb over the next three months, plus a 2.5% dividend, is on the table. This blend of demand and value points to a potential rebound.

Primary drivers

Lifting growth limits lets the bank make more loans and send cash back to owners
Positive mood and strong buying data show big investors like the stock near $80
Large share repurchases after tests should lift earnings per share and prop up price
Shares are cheaper than rivals, which helps cushion the price if profits slow

How it played out

WFC: thesis partly played out but target was missed

Lyra published WFC at $79.75 on 2025-07-20 with a 12% expected gain and an $88.33 target. The thesis pointed to buyers near $79-$81, planned share repurchases after growth limits were lifted, a valuation of 1.2 times tangible assets and 8.9 times next year's profit, plus a 2.5% dividend.

Inside the 2025-07-20 to 2025-10-18 window, WFC rose but never reached the target. The peak was $87.01 on 2025-10-15, a 9.1% gain, still below $88.33. It ended at $82.84. The thesis partly played out, but the published target was missed.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-14, Wells Fargo reported third-quarter earnings of $1.66 a share on revenue of $21.44 billion, according to Investor's Business Daily. Barron's reported the same day that Wells Fargo shares climbed 7.2% after the earnings release and a higher return-on-equity target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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