Track record · closed signal

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — closed signal from February 1, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 2, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

LLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$1,025.00 – $1,040.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$1,037.15Published — price the day we called it

$1,182.35Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$1,114.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$963.33Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 53% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$1,114.00

peak on February 4, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+7.4%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$963.33

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

February 1, 2026 – May 2, 2026

The thesis — published February 1, 2026

Predicted growth

+14%

over the measurement window

Target price

$1,182.35

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$1,025.00 – $1,040.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$1,037.15

published February 1, 2026

Confidence

68%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Eli Lilly is a top drugmaker that fell because investors are focused on big economic reports and company earnings this week. Its obesity and diabetes medicines are the long-term growth story. If broader worries ease, the stock could bounce quickly. Short term (0-3 months) the plan is to buy when price looks oversold rather than chase gains.

Primary drivers

Market risk aversion caused a temporary price drop in a strong pharma name
Strength in obesity and diabetes products should keep sales steady
If economic and earnings news calms, the stock could rebound fast
High valuation makes the share price swing more with sentiment changes

How it played out

LLY: the target was not reached

Lyra published LLY at 1037.15 on February 1, 2026, with expected growth of 14%. The thesis pointed to a temporary drop from market risk aversion, strength in obesity and diabetes products, a possible fast rebound if economic and earnings worries eased, and bigger sentiment swings because valuation was high.

Inside the window, LLY rose to a peak of 1114 on February 4, a 7.4% gain. The target was 1182.35. It never got there. By May 2, the stock ended at 963.33. The thesis played out only partly: there was an early bounce, but not enough to reach the target, and the window closed below the publication price.

What happened during the window

On February 4, Axios reported that Lilly expected an oral GLP-1 pill not to hurt injectable sales. On April 30, MarketWatch reported that Lilly had first-quarter GLP-1 sales of $12.9 billion and raised its 2026 revenue forecast to $82 billion to $85 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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