Track record · closed signal

Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) — closed signal from February 1, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 2, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

AVGO price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$331.30 Published $404.19 Target $421.28 Window close $429.31 Peak
$325.00 – $335.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$331.30Published — price the day we called it
$404.19Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$429.31Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$421.28Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 75 days.

Peak price
$429.31
peak on April 23, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+29.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$421.28
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
75
Window
February 1, 2026 – May 2, 2026

The thesis — published February 1, 2026

Predicted growth
+22%
over the measurement window
Target price
$404.19
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$325.00 – $335.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$331.30
published February 1, 2026
Confidence
79%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Broadcom makes chips and software that big cloud companies need for AI. Recent analyst upgrades and signs of increased orders for custom server chips suggest demand is rising. The stock pulled back recently, so buying in small pieces on dips can improve the chance of a rebound over the next few months. Watch valuation and debt headlines because they can cause quick price swings, so keep position sizes conservative.

Primary drivers

  • Analyst upgrades highlighting custom AI server chip strength
  • Growing orders from large cloud customers for AI networking
  • Recent pullback gives better odds for a near-term rebound
  • Debate over valuation and debt can cause rapid share swings

How it played out

AVGO: target reached in 75 days

Lyra published AVGO at 331.3 on 2026-02-01. The thesis expected 22% growth over a short-term window. It pointed to custom artificial intelligence server chip strength, large cloud customer orders, a recent pullback, and the risk that valuation and debt headlines could move the stock quickly.

Inside the window, AVGO reached the 404.19 target in 75 days. It peaked at 429.31 on 2026-04-23, a 29.6% gain. It ended the window at 421.28, still above the target. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2026-03-04, Broadcom reported fiscal first-quarter results for the quarter ended 2026-02-01, with adjusted earnings of $2.05 per share and revenue of $19.31 billion. It also forecast fiscal second-quarter revenue of $22 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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