Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) — closed signal from July 20, 2025
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 18, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 60% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published July 20, 2025
The share price has fallen about 10%, landing on its long-term average price right before its 30 July earnings report. Trading activity shows big money investors likely stepped in to buy. Analysts expect profits to rise 15% thanks to new business in cars, radio chips and edge-AI, so the stock looks cheaper than similar chip makers. If results meet hopes, it could climb back to the high $170s within three months.
Primary drivers
- 30 July earnings could show profit up 15%, a date that could lift investor mood.
- Price looks oversold, and higher-than-usual trading hints sellers may be running out.
- Winning deals in cars, smart devices and edge-AI broadens its customer base beyond phones.
- Shares are about 12% cheaper than similar chip firms, so they could catch up in price.
How it played out
QCOM: thesis only partly played out
Lyra published QCOM at $153.14 on 2025-07-20 with 22% expected growth and a $184.83 target. The thesis pointed to the 30 July earnings report, a possible 15% profit rise, oversold trading, buying by large investors, new business in cars, radio chips and edge artificial intelligence, and a cheaper price than similar chip firms.
Inside the window, QCOM rose, but it never reached the target. The peak was $173.55 on 2025-09-24, a 13.3% gain. It ended at $162.62 on 2025-10-18. The call worked in direction, but missed the published target. The thesis partly played out.
What happened during the window
On 2025-07-30, Qualcomm reported fiscal third-quarter revenue of $10.4 billion, up 10% from the same period a year earlier. On 2025-09-05, Qualcomm and BMW announced Snapdragon Ride Pilot, a hands-free driver-assist system shown with the BMW iX3.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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