Track record · closed signal

Walmart Inc. (WMT) — closed signal from February 1, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 2, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

WMT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$119.14 Published $128.67 Target $131.60 Window close $134.69 Peak
$116.50 – $120.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$119.14Published — price the day we called it
$128.67Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$134.69Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$131.60Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 3 days.

Peak price
$134.69
peak on February 17, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+13.1%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$131.60
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
3
Window
February 1, 2026 – May 2, 2026

The thesis — published February 1, 2026

Predicted growth
+8%
over the measurement window
Target price
$128.67
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$116.50 – $120.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$119.14
published February 1, 2026
Confidence
64%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Walmart is a reliable, defensive retailer. A CEO change and a push in its pharmacy business give reasons for steady positive headlines. In volatile markets, investors may favor its stability over higher-upside names. Near-term gains are likely modest; a smart short-term plan is to buy on regular dips rather than chase big moves when prices jump.

Primary drivers

  • CEO change and pharmacy focus help short-term performance
  • Stable demand keeps Walmart resilient in weak markets
  • Large retail and services scale supports steady growth
  • Best used to stabilize a portfolio, bought on dips

How it played out

WMT: target reached in 3 days

Lyra published WMT at 119.14 on 2026-02-01 with 8% expected growth and a 128.67 target. The thesis pointed to Walmart as a reliable, defensive retailer. It cited a CEO change, pharmacy focus, stable demand in weak markets, large retail and services scale, and buying regular dips rather than chasing jumps.

Inside the window from 2026-02-01 to 2026-05-02, the stock reached the target in 3 days. It later peaked at 134.69 on 2026-02-17, a 13.1% gain. It ended at 131.6, still above the target. The published thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-19, Axios reported Walmart's fourth-quarter results in John Furner's first earnings report as CEO. Revenue rose 5.6% to $190.7 billion, and operating income rose 10.8%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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