Track record · closed signal

Alphabet Inc. (Class A) (GOOGL) — closed signal from February 1, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 2, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

GOOGL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$332.00 – $340.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$338.00Published — price the day we called it

$388.70Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$386.76Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$385.69Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price

$386.76

peak on May 1, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+14.4%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$385.69

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

February 1, 2026 – May 2, 2026

The thesis — published February 1, 2026

Predicted growth

+15%

over the measurement window

Target price

$388.70

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$332.00 – $340.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$338.00

published February 1, 2026

Confidence

76%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Alphabet reports earnings in the Feb 2-6 window and just announced a big Gemini deal to put its AI into Apple's Siri, which means its AI reaches many more users. The company already earns from search, YouTube and Cloud, so a strong report could push the stock higher over the next few months. Because expectations are high, be careful about buying right before results.

Primary drivers

Earnings next week could quickly change how investors value the stock
Gemini deal with Apple expands how many people see Alphabet's AI
Search, YouTube and Cloud are separate ways the company can beat estimates
High expectations increase the chance the price jumps up or down after results

How it played out

GOOGL: the target was not reached

Lyra published GOOGL at 338 on 2026-02-01 with a short-term 15% expected gain. The target was 388.70. The thesis pointed to earnings in the Feb 2-6 window, a Gemini deal with Apple, and Alphabet's separate search, YouTube, and Cloud businesses. It also noted that high expectations could move the price either way after results.

Inside the window, GOOGL rose close to the target but did not reach it. The peak was 386.76 on 2026-05-01, a 14.4% gain. It ended at 385.69 on 2026-05-02. The thesis mostly played out on price, but the target was missed. It never got there.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-04, Alphabet reported quarterly profit of $34.5 billion and fourth-quarter revenue of $113.83 billion. On 2026-04-29, Alphabet reported Q1 2026 revenue of $109.9 billion, and Sundar Pichai said Search queries reached an all-time high.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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