Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from February 1, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 2, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$182.00 – $192.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$191.13Published — price the day we called it

$229.36Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$216.83Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$198.45Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 67% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$216.83

peak on April 27, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+13.4%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$198.45

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

February 1, 2026 – May 2, 2026

The thesis — published February 1, 2026

Predicted growth

+20%

over the measurement window

Target price

$229.36

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$182.00 – $192.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$191.13

published February 1, 2026

Confidence

77%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Nvidia is the main company people look to for AI computing. Management said the OpenAI funding story is not final, which calms the idea of a speculative frenzy. The stock still jumps around a lot, so a safer short-term approach is to buy when the price drops a bit instead of chasing big run-ups.

Primary drivers

Strong demand for AI computing in data centers and for inference
Management saying funding talks are not finalized reduces speculative risk
Investments and partner work keep Nvidia in news and growing opportunity
High price swings mean buying on pullbacks is generally safer

How it played out

NVDA: thesis partly played out but target was missed

Lyra published NVDA at 191.13 on 2026-02-01 with an expected 20% gain and a 229.36 target. The thesis pointed to demand for artificial intelligence computing in data centers and inference, management comments that funding talks were not finalized, continued partner work, and the idea that pullbacks were safer than chasing run-ups.

Inside the window, NVDA rose to 216.83 on 2026-04-27. That was a 13.4% peak gain, but it stayed below the 229.36 target. It never got there. By 2026-05-02, the stock ended at 198.45. The thesis partly played out because the price rose, but the target was missed.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-05, Tom's Hardware reported that Nvidia said demand for GeForce RTX GPUs was strong and memory supply was constrained. On 2026-02-26, Business Insider covered Nvidia's Q4 earnings and reported that the company beat Wall Street estimates and discussed Vera Rubin chips.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals