Track record · closed signal

Alphabet Inc. (Class A) (GOOGL) — closed signal from January 31, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 1, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

GOOGL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$338.00 Published $371.80 Target $385.69 Window close $386.76 Peak
$330.00 – $341.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$338.00Published — price the day we called it
$371.80Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$386.76Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$385.69Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 89 days.

Peak price
$386.76
peak on May 1, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+14.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$385.69
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
89
Window
January 31, 2026 – May 1, 2026

The thesis — published January 31, 2026

Predicted growth
+10%
over the measurement window
Target price
$371.80
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$330.00 – $341.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$338.00
published January 31, 2026
Confidence
78%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Alphabet is a very large, easy-to-trade company that usually grows steadily. Recent news about OpenAI getting into ads raises competition risk, but it also keeps focus on Alphabet improving products with AI and protecting its ad business. The stock isn't stretched, so buying small declines can lead to steady gains. Main danger is sharp swings in investor mood if AI competition becomes a headline.

Primary drivers

  • Search and ads bring steady cash and fund growth
  • Ongoing AI updates help keep products useful and growing
  • OpenAI moving into ads can cause short-term price swings to buy
  • Large market size and trading volume make positions easier to hold

How it played out

GOOGL: target reached in 89 days

Lyra published GOOGL at 338 on 2026-01-31 with 10% expected growth and a 371.8 target. The thesis pointed to search and ads cash flow, product updates around artificial intelligence, short-term swings from new ad competition, and the stock's large market size and trading volume.

Inside the window, GOOGL reached a 386.76 peak on 2026-05-01, above the 371.8 target. The peak gain was 14.4%, and the target was reached in 89 days. It ended at 385.69 on 2026-05-01. The published thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2026-04-29, Alphabet reported Q1 2026 revenue of $109.9 billion and said Search had 19% revenue growth. The same report said Google Cloud revenue was $20 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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