Track record · closed signal

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — closed signal from January 31, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on May 1, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

LLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$1,000.00 – $1,045.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$1,037.15Published — price the day we called it

$1,140.87Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$1,114.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$963.33Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 74% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$1,114.00

peak on February 4, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+7.4%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$963.33

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

January 31, 2026 – May 1, 2026

The thesis — published January 31, 2026

Predicted growth

+10%

over the measurement window

Target price

$1,140.87

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$1,000.00 – $1,045.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$1,037.15

published January 31, 2026

Confidence

84%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Lilly is a strong, well-run drugmaker that looks positioned to bounce back over the next few months. New U.S. manufacturing capacity lowers the chance of supply problems, and a gene-editing deal adds possible future drug projects. The plan is to buy gradually because the recent drop may still need time to settle.

Primary drivers

Bigger U.S. manufacturing reduces supply worries and shows execution
Gene-editing deal brings extra future drug opportunities
High-quality pharma demand could lift shares during a reset
Less price swings than fast-growth stocks makes moves steadier

How it played out

LLY: thesis rose early but never reached target

Lyra published LLY at $1037.15 on 2026-01-31 with expected growth of 10%. The thesis pointed to bigger U.S. manufacturing, fewer supply worries, a gene-editing deal, steady pharma demand, and less price swing than fast-growth stocks. The plan also called for buying gradually because the recent drop might need time to settle.

Inside the window, LLY peaked at $1114 on 2026-02-04, a 7.4% gain. It stayed below the $1140.87 target. By 2026-05-01, it ended at $963.33. The thesis partly played out early, but it missed the target and finished below the publication price.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All LLY signals