Track record · closed signal

Clearwater Analytics Holdings, Inc. (CWAN) — closed signal from January 30, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 30, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

CWAN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$24.11 Published $27.00 Target $24.20 Window close $24.20 Peak
$22.50 – $24.25Entry zone — fair-value band
$24.11Published — price the day we called it
$27.00Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$24.20Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$24.20Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 3% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$24.20
peak on April 23, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+0.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$24.20
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
January 30, 2026 – April 30, 2026

The thesis — published January 30, 2026

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$27.00
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$22.50 – $24.25
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$24.11
published January 30, 2026
Confidence
64%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Company is pushing new AI features in its Beacon software while a possible buyout is unfolding. That combination creates short-term chance for a pop if the deal becomes clearer, but insider tax sales and a bank downgrade keep the story risky. Treat this as speculative for the next few months, keep positions small, and expect price swings on headlines.

Primary drivers

  • New AI features could make the product more attractive to customers
  • A buyout process can set a clear price reference for the stock
  • If deal details calm investors, price swings may quickly narrow
  • Subscription software can change investor sentiment if execution improves

How it played out

CWAN: target was not reached

Lyra published CWAN at 24.11 on 2026-01-30 with a short-term setup looking for 12% growth toward 27. The thesis pointed to new artificial intelligence features in Beacon, a possible buyout, calmer deal details, and subscription software sentiment if execution improved.

Inside the window from 2026-01-30 to 2026-04-30, the stock peaked at 24.2 on 2026-04-23. That was a 0.4% gain, and it stayed below the 27 target. It ended at 24.2. The thesis only partially played out on price. It never got there.

What happened during the window

On 2026-04-23, the European Commission listed case M.12339, Warburg Pincus / Permira / Clearwater Analytics. The case concerned the Clearwater Analytics transaction and was dated inside the measurement window.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All CWAN signals