Track record · closed signal

T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) — closed signal from January 30, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 30, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

TMUS price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$195.24 Published $214.77 Target $195.50 Window close $224.74 Peak
$188.00 – $196.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$195.24Published — price the day we called it
$214.77Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$224.74Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$195.50Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 13 days.

Peak price
$224.74
peak on February 24, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+15.1%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$195.50
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
13
Window
January 30, 2026 – April 30, 2026

The thesis — published January 30, 2026

Predicted growth
+10%
over the measurement window
Target price
$214.77
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$188.00 – $196.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$195.24
published January 30, 2026
Confidence
75%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Analysts reaffirming T-Mobile and a strong subscriber report from Verizon point to steady demand for wireless services. Expect the stock to rise gradually rather than jump suddenly. Because the stock has already moved up, buying on small dips is safer than chasing higher prices; this helps limit losses if sentiment cools.

Primary drivers

  • Analyst praise can bring extra buyers
  • Subscriber growth in the industry shows steady demand
  • Reliable cash flow helps in unsettled markets
  • Gaining broadband and wireless customers can boost sales

How it played out

TMUS: target reached in 13 days

On Jan. 30, 2026, Lyra published a short-term TMUS thesis at $195.24. It expected 10% growth to $214.77. The thesis pointed to analyst praise, steady wireless demand after Verizon's subscriber report, reliable cash flow in unsettled markets, and gains in broadband and wireless customers.

Inside the window, TMUS rose above the target. It reached a peak of $224.74 on Feb. 24, 2026, with a peak gain of 15.1%. The target was reached in 13 days. By the end of the window, the stock was back at $195.5. The thesis played out, but the move did not hold through the close.

What happened during the window

On Apr. 28, 2026, T-Mobile reported first-quarter revenue growth and 217,000 postpaid net account additions. The company also raised its full-year guidance for net postpaid account additions.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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