Track record · closed signal

Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) — closed signal from January 30, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 30, 2026 — +3.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

LRCX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$249.50 Published $284.43 Target $257.86 Window close $275.84 Peak
$235.00 – $245.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$249.50Published — price the day we called it
$284.43Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$275.84Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$257.86Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 76% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
+3.4%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+10.6%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+4.1%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$257.86
last close inside the window, ended April 30, 2026
Peak price
$275.84
peak on April 24, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published January 30, 2026

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$284.43
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$235.00 – $245.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$249.50
published January 30, 2026
Confidence
67%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Lam Research makes machines used to build advanced computer chips. Right now demand is strong because of spending on AI-related chips, and management commentary has been positive after a big price run. The main risk: excitement can fade quickly and the stock can drop fast, so it's better to buy only on measured pullbacks.

Primary drivers

  • AI-related chip spending can keep demand high for equipment makers
  • Good management updates keep investor interest alive
  • Reputable company can recover quickly after short drops
  • Buying on dips gives a safer chance to profit while limiting risk

How it played out

LRCX: the target was not reached

Lyra published LRCX on 2026-01-30 at $249.50 for a short-term window ending 2026-04-30. The thesis expected 14% growth and pointed to demand from artificial intelligence-related chip spending, positive management updates after a large price run, the company's ability to recover after short drops, and a preference for buying on measured pullbacks.

Inside the window, LRCX rose but did not reach the $284.43 target. The peak was $275.84 on 2026-04-24, with a 10.6% gain. It ended the window at $257.86. The thesis partially played out because the stock moved in the expected direction, but it stayed below the target.

What happened during the window

On 2026-04-22, Lam Research reported fiscal third-quarter results for the quarter ended 2026-03-29. Investors.com reported adjusted earnings of $1.47 per share on sales of $5.84 billion, and said both were above FactSet estimates.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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