Track record · closed signal

Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) — closed signal from January 29, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 29, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

UBER price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$79.00 – $82.50Entry zone — fair-value band

$81.56Published — price the day we called it

$97.87Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$82.10Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$74.47Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 3% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$82.10

peak on January 30, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+0.7%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$74.47

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

January 29, 2026 – April 29, 2026

The thesis — published January 29, 2026

Predicted growth

+20%

over the measurement window

Target price

$97.87

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$79.00 – $82.50

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$81.56

published January 29, 2026

Confidence

68%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Uber could recover in the next few months because a new funding round for a robotaxi partner plus Uber money makes the self-driving story more believable. Shares recently pulled back, so buy in stages inside the suggested range and add only after the price steadies. Main risks are lawsuit headlines and weaker demand for rides or deliveries.

Primary drivers

Funding and Uber commitment make robotaxi plans seem more real
Active consumers and network effects help the platform grow
Recent price drop gives a better buying opportunity than chasing highs
Lawsuit headlines can spike volatility; size positions carefully

How it played out

UBER: thesis missed as target was never reached

Lyra published UBER at 81.56 on 2026-01-29 with expected growth of 20%. The thesis pointed to robotaxi funding and Uber commitment, active consumers and network effects, a recent price drop, and the risk that lawsuit headlines could raise volatility.

Inside the 2026-01-29 to 2026-04-29 window, UBER peaked at 82.1 on 2026-01-30, a 0.7% gain. It stayed below the 97.87 target and never reached it. The stock ended at 74.47. The published thesis did not play out.

What happened during the window

On February 4, 2026, Uber reported fourth-quarter results and named Balaji Krishnamurthy as its next finance chief. On March 26, 2026, Uber announced a robotaxi partnership in Croatia with Pony and Verne.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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