New Gold Inc. (NGD) — closed signal from January 28, 2026
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 28, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 23% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published January 28, 2026
New Gold looks stronger because gold and silver prices are high and a planned deal with Coeur keeps attention on the stock. People bought quickly, so don't chase the fast move. If metals stay strong and the deal proceeds on schedule, the stock could keep rising over the next few months.
Primary drivers
- Deal approval keeps investors focused on the stock
- High gold and silver prices attract mining buyers
- Deal-related positioning can push the stock higher as timeline advances
- Buying after a pullback reduces the risk of overpaying
How it played out
NGD: the thesis did not reach its target
Lyra published NGD at 12.97 on 2026-01-28. The thesis expected 18% growth, with a target of 15.30. It pointed to deal approval keeping investors focused on the stock, high gold and silver prices attracting mining buyers, deal-related positioning as the timeline advanced, and buying after a pullback to reduce the risk of overpaying.
Inside the window, NGD peaked at 13.52 on 2026-02-27, a 4.2% gain. It stayed below the 15.30 target and never reached it. By 2026-04-28, it ended at 12.16. The thesis partially played out early, but the target missed.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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