Track record · closed signal

Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) — closed signal from January 28, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 28, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

AMAT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$326.00 – $340.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$338.12Published — price the day we called it

$385.46Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$420.50Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$381.11Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 28 days.

Peak price

$420.50

peak on April 24, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+24.4%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$381.11

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

Window

January 28, 2026 – April 28, 2026

The thesis — published January 28, 2026

Predicted growth

+14%

over the measurement window

Target price

$385.46

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$326.00 – $340.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$338.12

published January 28, 2026

Confidence

80%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Applied Materials sells the machines chip factories need. Demand looks strong because tool supply is tight and AI-related factory spending is growing, which supports sales in the near term. The stock can move sharply after big gains, so prefer buying smaller dips rather than chasing high prices.

Primary drivers

Short supply of machines keeps orders steady
AI-related factory builds are increasing spending
Company makes key machines used across chip steps
Buying dips helps reduce risk after big gains

How it played out

AMAT: target reached in 28 days

Lyra published AMAT at 338.12 on January 28, 2026, with 14% expected growth and a 385.46 target. The thesis pointed to tight machine supply, growing artificial intelligence-related factory spending, Applied Materials' role across chipmaking steps, and a preference for buying dips after large gains.

Inside the window, the stock reached the target in 28 days. It later peaked at 420.50 on April 24, with a 24.4% peak gain. It ended at 381.11 on April 28. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On February 12, 2026, Tom's Hardware reported that Applied Materials agreed to pay a $252 million civil penalty tied to alleged exports of chipmaking equipment to SMIC-linked entities. The article also said related U.S. Justice Department and SEC investigations had closed without action.

Applied Materials to pay $252 million penalty for selling chipmaking tools to banned Chinese firm

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All AMAT signals