Track record · closed signal

Bank of America Corp. (BAC) — closed signal from January 27, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 27, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

BAC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$51.99 Published $59.26 Target $52.63 Window close $56.87 Peak
$50.50 – $52.50Entry zone — fair-value band
$51.99Published — price the day we called it
$59.26Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$56.87Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$52.63Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 67% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$56.87
peak on February 6, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+9.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$52.63
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
January 27, 2026 – April 27, 2026

The thesis — published January 27, 2026

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$59.26
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$50.50 – $52.50
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$51.99
published January 27, 2026
Confidence
79%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

The stock pulled back hard and now looks like a short-term rebound chance over the next few months. Recent news shows lots of money flowing into the bank sector and loan growth that helps the business case. If interest rates steady and investors get more confident, the stock can bounce quickly. Be careful: bank shares move a lot when Fed news or yields change.

Primary drivers

  • More money moving into bank stocks can lift big banks
  • Growing loans give the bank a firmer business foundation
  • Price could revert higher after a sharp decline
  • Easy to buy or sell shares helps handle news-driven swings

How it played out

BAC: rebound thesis partially played out, target missed

Lyra published BAC at 51.99 on 2026-01-27 with a short-term rebound thesis. It expected 14% growth to 59.26. The thesis pointed to more money moving into bank stocks, growing loans, a possible rebound after a sharp decline, and easy trading in the shares during news-driven swings.

Inside the window, BAC rose to 56.87 on 2026-02-06, a 9.4% peak gain. It never reached 59.26. By 2026-04-27, it ended at 52.63. The thesis partly played out, but the target was missed.

What happened during the window

On 2026-04-15, Bank of America reported first-quarter net income of $8.6 billion and revenue of $30.27 billion. The same report said equities revenue rose 30%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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