Track record · closed signal

SkyWater Technology Inc. (SKYT) — closed signal from January 27, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 27, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

SKYT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$32.37 Published $35.61 Target $31.82 Window close $34.40 Peak
$31.50 – $33.50Entry zone — fair-value band
$32.37Published — price the day we called it
$35.61Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$34.40Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$31.82Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 63% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$34.40
peak on April 22, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+6.3%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$31.82
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
January 27, 2026 – April 27, 2026

The thesis — published January 27, 2026

Predicted growth
+10%
over the measurement window
Target price
$35.61
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$31.50 – $33.50
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$32.37
published January 27, 2026
Confidence
89%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

IonQ agreed to buy SkyWater at $35 per share, and the deal aims to close in 2026. Right now the price can move closer to that $35 reference as the market reacts to regulatory and shareholder steps. Buying below $35 tries to reduce risk from wider market swings, but if the deal timeline slips or terms change, the trade loses its main support.

Primary drivers

  • IonQ offer sets a clear near-term value
  • Price gap may narrow as deal steps progress
  • Announcement brings traders who target deals
  • Foundry business keeps some underlying demand

How it played out

SKYT: thesis partly played out, target missed

Lyra published SKYT at $32.37 on January 27, 2026, with expected growth of 10% and a target of $35.61. The thesis pointed to IonQ's $35 offer, a possible narrowing of the price gap as deal steps progressed, trader interest around the announcement, and some demand from the foundry business.

Inside the January 27 to April 27 window, SKYT rose to $34.40 on April 22, a peak gain of 6.3%. That was below the $35.61 target. It never got there. The stock ended at $31.82, below the published price. The thesis partly played out, but it missed the target.

What happened during the window

On January 27, 2026, Investor's Business Daily reported that IonQ had announced the SkyWater purchase at $35 per share and described the transaction as pending shareholder and regulatory approval.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All SKYT signals