Track record · closed signal

Bank of America Corporation (BAC) — closed signal from January 26, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 26, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

BAC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$50.50 – $52.30Entry zone — fair-value band

$52.18Published — price the day we called it

$58.44Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$56.87Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$52.05Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 75% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$56.87

peak on February 6, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+9%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$52.05

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

January 26, 2026 – April 26, 2026

The thesis — published January 26, 2026

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$58.44

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$50.50 – $52.30

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$52.18

published January 26, 2026

Confidence

78%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Shares fell after earnings even though the company beat on sales. This is viewed as a short-term rebound trade: the central bank decision this week and proposed credit-card rate caps could swing sentiment quickly. Treat as a tactical trade with tight limits, not a long-term hold, because earnings weeks can be volatile.

Primary drivers

Sales beat last quarter, which helps justify a rebound in the short term
Central bank decisions can quickly change how banks are valued
Talk of capping credit-card rates can scare investors in the near term
Big-company trading volume makes it easy to buy and sell during swings

How it played out

BAC: rebound rose 9% but missed the target

Lyra published BAC at $52.18 on January 26, 2026, as a short-term rebound trade with 12% expected growth. The thesis pointed to a sales beat, central bank decisions, credit-card rate-cap talk, and heavy trading volume. It also said the setup needed tight limits because earnings weeks could be volatile.

Inside the window, BAC rose to $56.87 on February 6, a 9% peak gain. The target was $58.44, and the stock never reached it. By April 26, it ended at $52.05. The thesis partly played out: the rebound came, but it stayed below the target and gave back most of the move.

What happened during the window

On April 15, 2026, MarketWatch reported that Bank of America posted first-quarter revenue of $30.27 billion and that equities revenue rose 30%. On the same date, Barron's reported that the wealth unit had $6.7 billion in revenue and $1.3 billion in net income for the first quarter.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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