Track record · closed signal

Kyndryl Holdings, Inc. (KD) — closed signal from July 19, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 17, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

KD price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$39.47 Published $47.36 Target $27.60 Window close $39.98 Peak
$39.00 – $39.80Entry zone — fair-value band
$39.47Published — price the day we called it
$47.36Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$39.98Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$27.60Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 7% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$39.98
peak on July 29, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+1.3%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$27.60
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
July 19, 2025 – October 17, 2025

The thesis — published July 19, 2025

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$47.36
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$39.00 – $39.80
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$39.47
published July 19, 2025
Confidence
66%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

The company just rolled out new AI tools and a service that helps big firms move old computer systems to Amazon's cloud. Big investors are enthusiastic, yet the share price has fallen and looks cheap. Leaders expect profit margins to start improving next quarter. If that comes true, the stock could move from about $39 to $48-50 within three months. Buying now may let investors act before proof of better profits appears, while losses can be limited near $35.5.

Primary drivers

  • New AI service mix could bring in work that pays better than old contracts
  • Deal with Amazon to move old mainframes may attract more big-company clients
  • Price slide plus very low momentum suggests most sellers are already gone
  • Strong positive buzz hints that large investment funds are building positions

How it played out

KD: the thesis did not reach its target

Lyra published KD at $39.47 on July 19, 2025, with an expected gain of 20% over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to new artificial intelligence tools, an Amazon cloud mainframe service, a weak share price, improving margins expected next quarter, and positive institutional buzz.

Inside the window, KD peaked at $39.98 on July 29, 2025. That was a 1.3% gain, and it stayed below the $47.36 target. It ended the window at $27.60 on October 17, 2025. The price action did not match the published thesis. It never got there.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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