Track record · closed signal

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — closed signal from January 25, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 25, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

LLY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$1,064.29 Published $1,192.00 Target $883.96 Window close $1,114.00 Peak
$1,035.00 – $1,070.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$1,064.29Published — price the day we called it
$1,192.00Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$1,114.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$883.96Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 39% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$1,114.00
peak on February 4, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+4.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$883.96
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
January 25, 2026 – April 25, 2026

The thesis — published January 25, 2026

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$1,192.00
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$1,035.00 – $1,070.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$1,064.29
published January 25, 2026
Confidence
80%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

LLY looks like a solid healthcare stock to buy for a short-term rebound. The share price fell sharply but attention is on its GLP-1 drug program. The FDA pushed the review deadline to April 10, and analysts still rate it a Buy. These facts make a stabilization and a bounce over the next 0 to 3 months likely.

Primary drivers

  • Clear event risk with an April 10 FDA decision on oral orforglipron
  • Analysts maintain Buy ratings despite recent negative news
  • Stable healthcare business offers defense compared with high-growth tech names
  • Recent selloff can reverse if selling pressure eases

How it played out

LLY: the 12% target was not reached

Lyra published LLY at 1064.29 on 2026-01-25, looking for 12% growth over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to a rebound after a sharp fall, attention on the GLP-1 drug program, an FDA review deadline of April 10, Buy ratings from analysts, a steadier healthcare business, and easing selling pressure.

Inside the window, LLY peaked at 1114 on 2026-02-04, a 4.7% gain. That stayed below the 1192 target. It never got there. By 2026-04-25, the stock ended at 883.96. The thesis partially played out early, then missed by the close.

What happened during the window

On April 1, 2026, the FDA approved Lilly's oral GLP-1 weight-loss drug orforglipron, sold as Foundayo. On April 2, 2026, People reported that prescriptions were accepted immediately and shipping was set to begin April 6, 2026.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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