Track record · closed signal

Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) — closed signal from January 24, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 24, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

PLTR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$169.60 Published $203.52 Target $143.09 Window close $170.59 Peak
$160.00 – $170.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$169.60Published — price the day we called it
$203.52Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$170.59Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$143.09Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 3% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$170.59
peak on January 26, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+0.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$143.09
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
January 24, 2026 – April 24, 2026

The thesis — published January 24, 2026

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$203.52
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$160.00 – $170.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$169.60
published January 24, 2026
Confidence
68%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Palantir is a stock to trade around news, not a steady long-term grower right now. A reported large Hyundai contract and public endorsements can cause quick buying spikes. That same news-driven setup can reverse quickly if expectations cool, so buy small in the zone and only add after the price settles.

Primary drivers

  • Big commercial deals make short-term stories stronger
  • Government and AI spending keeps demand healthy
  • Public attention can trigger quick buying on good news
  • High valuation means price can fall fast if optimism fades

How it played out

PLTR: the target was never reached

Lyra published PLTR at 169.6 on 2026-01-24. The thesis expected 20% growth and pointed to big commercial deals, government and artificial intelligence spending, public attention, and high valuation risk. It described PLTR as a short-term news trade, not a steady long-term grower at that time.

Inside the window, the stock peaked at 170.59 on 2026-01-26, with a peak gain of 0.6%. It stayed below the 203.52 target. By 2026-04-24, it ended at 143.09. The thesis missed. The quick buying spike did not arrive in the measured window.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-02, Palantir reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $1.41 billion and earnings per share of $0.25. On 2026-02-23, TechRadar reported that the Department of Homeland Security entered a five-year agreement with Palantir valued at up to $1 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All PLTR signals