Clearwater Analytics Holdings, Inc. (CWAN) — closed signal from January 24, 2026
Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 24, 2026.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached 3% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.
The thesis — published January 24, 2026
This is mostly a short-term trade around a planned buyout at $24.55. That announced price gives a clear target for the coming months. Recent developments like an insider tax sale and multiple law-firm notices can make the gap between current price and deal price get smaller or bigger. The plan is to buy near the lower end to profit if the gap narrows, but be ready to exit if new headlines increase deal risk.
Primary drivers
- Buyout price gives a clear short-term target near $24.55
- Price gap can shrink as the deal moves forward
- Lawsuits or filings can quickly make the gap wider
- Less volatile because it's tied to a defined deal price
How it played out
CWAN: target was not reached
Lyra published CWAN at 24.18 on 2026-01-24. The thesis expected 3% growth to 24.91. It pointed to a planned buyout at 24.55, a price gap that could shrink as the deal moved forward, and filings or lawsuits that could widen the gap again.
Inside the window, CWAN peaked at 24.20 on 2026-04-23. That was a 0.1% peak gain, and it stayed below the target. The target was never reached. The signal ended at 24.15 on 2026-04-24. The thesis only partially played out.
What happened during the window
On 2026-04-23, the European Commission listed Case M.12339, Warburg Pincus / Permira / Clearwater Analytics.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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