Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from January 24, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 24, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$187.67 Published $232.71 Target $208.27 Window close $210.95 Peak
$182.00 – $190.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$187.67Published — price the day we called it
$232.71Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$210.95Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$208.27Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 52% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$210.95
peak on April 24, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+12.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$208.27
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
January 24, 2026 – April 24, 2026

The thesis — published January 24, 2026

Predicted growth
+24%
over the measurement window
Target price
$232.71
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$182.00 – $190.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$187.67
published January 24, 2026
Confidence
82%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA is seen as the main company building the computers that run advanced AI. The CEO's recent comments remind investors the company has a long-term growth story, while news about possible orders from China can make the stock swing. After a big run, the price may pause; buying on small drops is a safer way to get in than chasing higher prices.

Primary drivers

  • Big spending on AI hardware from companies and data centers
  • Positive CEO messages that keep investor confidence high
  • News about demand from China can move the stock quickly
  • Strong hardware plus software makes customers stick with them

How it played out

NVDA: the target was not reached

Lyra published NVDA at 187.67 on 2026-01-24 with a short-term thesis for 24% growth. The thesis pointed to data-center hardware spending, positive CEO messages, China demand news, and hardware plus software that could keep customers attached.

Inside the window, the stock rose but did not reach 232.71. Its peak was 210.95 on 2026-04-24, a 12.4% gain. It ended at 208.27. The thesis partially played out because the price moved up, but it stayed below the target. It never got there.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-18, Business Insider reported a multigenerational Meta deal for data centers using Nvidia chips. On 2026-02-26, Tom's Hardware reported Nvidia's fiscal 2026 results, including 215.938 billion in annual revenue and 68.127 billion in Q4 revenue.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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