Track record · closed signal

The Mosaic Company (MOS) — closed signal from January 23, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 23, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

MOS price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$27.80 – $29.20Entry zone — fair-value band

$28.86Published — price the day we called it

$33.48Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$32.25Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$24.28Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 73% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$32.25

peak on March 12, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+11.7%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$24.28

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

January 23, 2026 – April 23, 2026

The thesis — published January 23, 2026

Predicted growth

+16%

over the measurement window

Target price

$33.48

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$27.80 – $29.20

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$28.86

published January 23, 2026

Confidence

68%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

MOS is a short-term cyclical trade idea tied to the materials sector gaining strength. Hedge-fund buying and the sector showing leadership can help the stock keep rising if fertilizer prices stay firm. The stock already moved up, so it is safer to wait for a price pullback to lower risk. If fertilizer prices drop, sentiment could reverse quickly.

Primary drivers

Fresh investor interest can help the stock keep moving up
When the sector is strong, stock prices and multiples often rise
Buying on pullbacks lowers the chance of entering at a high point
News about fertilizer prices or demand can quickly change the trend

How it played out

MOS: the target was not reached

On 2026-01-23, Lyra published MOS at $28.86 as a short-term cyclical trade tied to materials strength. The expected growth was 16%, with a target of $33.48. The thesis pointed to fresh investor interest, sector leadership, pullback discipline, and sensitivity to fertilizer prices or demand.

Inside the window, MOS rose, but it never got there. The stock peaked at $32.25 on 2026-03-12, a 11.7% gain, and stayed below the target. By 2026-04-23, it ended at $24.28. The thesis only partly played out: the early upside appeared, but the published target was missed and the window closed below the publication price.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All MOS signals