Track record · closed signal

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) — closed signal from January 23, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 23, 2026 — +74% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

PARR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$35.50 – $37.80Entry zone — fair-value band

$37.40Published — price the day we called it

$44.88Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$67.39Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$65.09Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 38 days.

At window close

+74%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+80.2%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3.1%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$65.09

last close inside the window, ended April 23, 2026

Peak price

$67.39

peak on April 7, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published January 23, 2026

Predicted growth

+20%

over the measurement window

Target price

$44.88

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$35.50 – $37.80

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$37.40

published January 23, 2026

Confidence

74%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

This is a short-term trade based on improving conditions for refiners. Softer crude costs and more heavy-sour supply make refining more profitable, which can boost earnings soon. A Wall Street firm adding the stock to a model list may bring extra buyers. Treat it as a volatile, tactical trade and buy pullbacks only.

Primary drivers

Refiner profits can rise quickly when crude costs ease
Recent news makes refining economics look better
Inclusion on a model list can draw extra investor interest
Price swings mean smaller positions and quick exits are needed

How it played out

PARR: target reached in 38 days

Lyra published PARR at 37.40 on Jan 23, with expected growth of 20% and a target of 44.88. The thesis pointed to better refining conditions, softer crude costs, more heavy-sour supply, possible earnings support, and extra interest after a Wall Street model-list addition. It also framed the trade as volatile and tactical.

Inside the window, PARR reached the target in 38 days. The stock peaked at 67.39 on Apr 7, a peak gain of 80.2%, and ended the window at 65.09. The published thesis played out. It did more than reach the target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All PARR signals