Track record · closed signal

Bank of America Corp. (BAC) — closed signal from July 19, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 17, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

BAC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$45.51 – $46.49Entry zone — fair-value band

$46.82Published — price the day we called it

$52.80Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$52.61Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$51.01Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price

$52.61

peak on September 23, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+12.4%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$51.01

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

July 19, 2025 – October 17, 2025

The thesis — published July 19, 2025

Predicted growth

+14%

over the measurement window

Target price

$52.80

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$45.51 – $46.49

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$46.82

published July 19, 2025

Confidence

75%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Bank of America shares are forming a healthy pattern that often appears before a climb. Trading volume shows big professional investors are quietly adding stock after the company beat expectations last quarter and raised a special dividend. Government test results on July 24 and the chance of faster share repurchases could pull the price up to about $54 within three months, roughly 14% higher, while losses may be limited near $44.

Primary drivers

Rising trading volume suggests large institutions are steadily buying the stock.
Better-than-expected Q2 results and a higher dividend show strong finances.
July 24 test results could allow the bank to spend more cash on share buybacks.
Slowing rise in deposit costs helps keep interest income steady for the rest of the year.

How it played out

BAC: target stayed just out of reach

Lyra published BAC at 46.82 on 2025-07-19 with a short-term thesis for roughly 14% growth within three months. The thesis pointed to rising trading volume, better-than-expected Q2 results, a higher dividend, possible buyback room after July 24 test results, and slower growth in deposit costs.

Inside the window, BAC rose but never reached the 52.8 target. The peak was 52.61 on 2025-09-23, a 12.4% gain. It ended the window at 51.01 on 2025-10-17. The thesis mostly played out on direction and size, but the target was missed.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-15, Bank of America reported third-quarter results. The Wall Street Journal reported profit of $8.47 billion, or $1.06 per share, and revenue of $28.09 billion. MarketWatch also reported that the stock briefly reached $52.85 that morning after the report.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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