Track record · closed signal

The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) — closed signal from January 22, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 22, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

SCHW price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$104.29 Published $116.80 Target $91.71 Window close $107.49 Peak
$105.00 – $100.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$104.29Published — price the day we called it
$116.80Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$107.49Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$91.71Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 26% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$107.49
peak on February 10, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+3.1%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$91.71
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
January 22, 2026 – April 22, 2026

The thesis — published January 22, 2026

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$116.80
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$105.00 – $100.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$104.29
published January 22, 2026
Confidence
86%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Schwab recently fell sharply but the wider market stayed reasonably healthy, so it could rebound in the next few months. This week's quarterly report lowers uncertainty and may attract buyers who buy on dips. The main risk is that interest-rate swings or renewed market stress hurt the bank-style earnings and client activity.

Primary drivers

  • Earnings news can calm expectations and invite buyers
  • Big brokerage benefits if people invest more and asset levels rise
  • If interest-related income steadies, earnings look healthier
  • Large, liquid stock often recovers early when markets turn positive

How it played out

SCHW: target never reached

Lyra published SCHW on 2026-01-22 at 104.29 with expected growth of 12%. The target was 116.80. The thesis pointed to a sharp recent fall, a reasonably healthy wider market, the latest quarterly report lowering uncertainty, possible dip buyers, steadier interest-related income, higher asset levels, and a large, liquid stock that could recover early if markets turned positive.

Inside the window, SCHW rose only to 107.49 on 2026-02-10, a peak gain of 3.1%. It stayed below the target. By 2026-04-22, it ended at 91.71. The thesis missed.

What happened during the window

On 2026-04-16, MarketWatch reported that Charles Schwab said first-quarter revenue rose to a quarterly record, while revenue came in below Wall Street projections. The same report said the company opened 1.3 million new brokerage accounts during the quarter.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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