Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from January 22, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 22, 2026 — +10% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$188.00 – $176.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$184.15Published — price the day we called it

$217.30Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$202.75Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$202.50Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 56% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+10%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+10.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3.5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$202.50

last close inside the window, ended April 22, 2026

Peak price

$202.75

peak on April 21, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published January 22, 2026

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$217.30

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$188.00 – $176.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$184.15

published January 22, 2026

Confidence

83%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Nvidia looks like a short-term buy-on-dips idea. The stock has been forming a base and could speed up again if the chip sector stays strong. Recent arguments over U.S. licenses for a product sold to China are creating headline-driven swings, which can give chances to buy lower. The main danger is a sudden policy change that causes a big drop in the stock price.

Primary drivers

Nvidia leads AI chips, which keeps demand high for data centers
News about China licenses can cause short-term drops to buy
The stock is consolidating now and may be setting up to rise
If the semiconductor group strengthens into earnings, Nvidia may gain

How it played out

NVDA: the target was not reached

Lyra published NVDA on 2026-01-22 at 184.15 as a short-term buy-on-dips idea with 18% expected growth. The thesis pointed to demand for data-center chips tied to artificial intelligence, short-term swings around China license news, a consolidating stock, and possible strength in semiconductors into earnings.

Inside the window from 2026-01-22 to 2026-04-22, NVDA rose to a peak of 202.75 on 2026-04-21, a 10.1% gain. It stayed below the 217.30 target and ended at 202.50. The thesis partly played out because the stock rose, but it missed the published target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals