Track record · closed signal

Progress Software Corporation (PRGS) — closed signal from January 21, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 21, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

PRGS price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$46.59 Published $58.24 Target $31.32 Window close $47.25 Peak
$45.50 – $47.50Entry zone — fair-value band
$46.59Published — price the day we called it
$58.24Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$47.25Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$31.32Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 6% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$47.25
peak on January 21, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+1.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$31.32
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
January 21, 2026 – April 21, 2026

The thesis — published January 21, 2026

Predicted growth
+25%
over the measurement window
Target price
$58.24
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$45.50 – $47.50
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$46.59
published January 21, 2026
Confidence
78%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Progress reported quarterly results that beat expectations and raised its outlook for fiscal 2026. That news pushed the stock higher quickly, but such jumps can reverse, so it is safer to wait for a controlled drop before buying. If the stock holds support and demand from AI-related products continues, a further rise over the next 0 to 3 months is possible.

Primary drivers

  • Company raised its 2026 outlook after better-than-expected results
  • Growing demand for AI features and integrating ShareFile boosts sales
  • Price swings after earnings can create safer buying chances on dips
  • Investors like software names that show clear growth potential

How it played out

PRGS: the target was never reached

Lyra published PRGS at $46.59 on 2026-01-21 with expected growth of 25%. The target was $58.24. The thesis pointed to raised 2026 outlook after better-than-expected results, demand for artificial intelligence features, ShareFile integration, possible buying chances after earnings swings, and investor interest in software names with growth potential.

Inside the window, PRGS peaked at $47.25 on 2026-01-21, a 1.4% gain. It stayed below the $58.24 target. By 2026-04-21, it ended at $31.32. The thesis missed. It never got there.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-21, Barron's reported that Progress had posted fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.51 per share and revenue of $252 million. The same report said Progress projected 2026 revenue of $986 million to $1 billion and adjusted EPS of $5.82 to $5.96.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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