Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from January 21, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 21, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$172.00 – $182.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$179.36Published — price the day we called it

$211.64Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$202.75Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$199.88Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 72% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$202.75

peak on April 21, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+13%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$199.88

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

January 21, 2026 – April 21, 2026

The thesis — published January 21, 2026

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$211.64

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$172.00 – $182.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$179.36

published January 21, 2026

Confidence

86%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Nvidia is central to the global buildout of AI systems and leaders at the company say big spending is still coming. The stock has pulled back and is resting in a range; if buyers defend a key price area it can bounce. Trading is active and can swing quickly, so buy gradually and wait for a higher low to confirm a move up over the next 0-3 months.

Primary drivers

CEO says multiyear AI spending is still coming
Strong position in data center chips and AI software
Recent pullback may give a better entry for the next rise
Big trading volume makes active buying and selling easier

How it played out

NVDA: thesis partly played out, target missed

On January 21, Lyra published NVDA at $179.36 with an expected gain of 18% and a target of $211.64. The thesis pointed to multiyear artificial intelligence spending, NVIDIA's position in data center chips and software, a recent pullback that could give a better entry, and heavy trading volume.

Inside the window, NVDA rose but did not reach the target. The peak was $202.75 on April 21, with a peak gain of 13%. It ended at $199.88. The price moved in the thesis direction, but it stayed below the target. The verdict was partial.

What happened during the window

On March 16, 2026, NVIDIA announced the Vera Rubin Space Module for orbital data centers. On March 16, 2026, Microsoft said it was the first cloud provider to install NVIDIA's Vera Rubin NVL72 system for validation.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals