Track record · closed signal

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) — closed signal from January 20, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 20, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

UNH price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$332.86 Published $372.80 Target $323.48 Window close $357.87 Peak
$322.00 – $335.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$332.86Published — price the day we called it
$372.80Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$357.87Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$323.48Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 63% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$357.87
peak on January 23, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+7.5%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$323.48
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
January 20, 2026 – April 20, 2026

The thesis — published January 20, 2026

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$372.80
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$322.00 – $335.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$332.86
published January 20, 2026
Confidence
63%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

UnitedHealth is a short-term rebound idea after a long drop, but it hasn't clearly turned into a steady upward trend. Recent talk about whether the stock is cheap could draw buyers if selling eases. Because healthcare decisions and headlines can move the stock fast, buy in small pieces and wait for signs of stability. Treat this as a tactical, short-term trade, not a permanent holding.

Primary drivers

  • Debate over valuation could bring new buyers after weakness
  • Healthcare stocks often hold up when markets worry
  • Price may rebound if heavy selling calms down
  • Policy news can quickly move the stock up or down

How it played out

UNH: rebound thesis partly played out

Lyra published UNH on January 20, 2026 at 332.86 as a short-term rebound idea after a long drop. The expected growth was 12%. The thesis pointed to debate over valuation, possible buyer interest if selling eased, defensive healthcare demand when markets worried, and policy news that could move the stock quickly.

Inside the window, UNH rose to 357.87 on January 23, a 7.5% peak gain. That stayed below the 372.80 target. It never got there. By April 20, it ended at 323.48, below the publication price. The verdict was partial: the rebound came early, but the target was missed.

What happened during the window

On January 27, 2026, MarketWatch reported that UnitedHealth expected 2026 revenue to decline by at least 2% to more than $439 billion and guided adjusted earnings per share of at least $17.75.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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