Track record · closed signal

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK-B) — closed signal from January 20, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 20, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

BRK-B price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$475.00 – $492.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$489.63Published — price the day we called it

$538.59Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$512.13Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$472.08Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 46% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$512.13

peak on February 4, 2026 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+4.6%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$472.08

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

January 20, 2026 – April 20, 2026

The thesis — published January 20, 2026

Predicted growth

+10%

over the measurement window

Target price

$538.59

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$475.00 – $492.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$489.63

published January 20, 2026

Confidence

66%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Berkshire is being recommended as a steady, low-risk part of a portfolio for the next few months, not a fast-growth pick. Big, long-term owners and its mix of insurance and well-run businesses make it likely to hold value during market drops, so it's useful to buy on weakness to balance riskier stocks.

Primary drivers

Multiple businesses smooth out swings in revenues and profits
Large long-term owners often buy when price drops
Insurance and stable stock holdings help protect value
Few short-term triggers - growth likely slow but steady

How it played out

BRK-B: target never reached by window end

Lyra published BRK-B at 489.63 on 2026-01-20 as a short-term, steady holding rather than a fast-growth pick. The thesis expected 10% growth and pointed to its mix of businesses, long-term owners, insurance, stable stock holdings, and slow but steady growth with few short-term triggers.

Inside the window, BRK-B rose to 512.13 on 2026-02-04, a 4.6% peak gain. It stayed below the 538.59 target and never reached it. By 2026-04-20, it ended at 472.08. The thesis partially played out early, but the target was missed and the final price was lower than publication.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-28, Berkshire released its annual report, and MarketWatch reported that cash was 373.31 billion as of Dec. 31. On 2026-03-04, Barron's reported that Berkshire resumed buybacks, with about 225 million dollars repurchased that day.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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