Track record · closed signal

Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AGIO) — closed signal from July 2, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 30, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

AGIO price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$33.00 – $36.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$35.57Published — price the day we called it

$51.58Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$41.74Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$40.14Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 38% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$41.74

peak on July 23, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+17.3%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$40.14

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

July 2, 2025 – September 30, 2025

The thesis — published July 2, 2025

Predicted growth

+45%

over the measurement window

Target price

$51.58

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$33.00 – $36.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$35.57

published July 2, 2025

Confidence

85%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Agios has a clear decision day on 7 Sep when the FDA will say yes or no to using its anemia drug PYRUKYND for another blood disorder. Knowing the exact date helps traders plan. The company sits on $1.3 billion in cash, so it does not need to raise money soon. A big investment bank repeated its Buy rating, and trading data shows many investors are stepping in. Since the stock moved back above its recent average price, it could climb to about $52 over the next three months.

Primary drivers

FDA verdict on Sept 7 could quickly open a new stream of sales for PYRUKYND
TD Cowen and other analysts repeated Buy ratings in June, boosting mood
$1.3 billion in the bank means the company can fund itself well past the FDA call
Price back over recent average and stronger volume suggest buyers before news

How it played out

AGIO: target was not reached

Lyra published AGIO at $35.57 on 2025-07-02 with 45% expected growth. The thesis pointed to a Sept 7 FDA decision for PYRUKYND in another blood disorder, $1.3 billion in cash, repeated Buy ratings from TD Cowen and other analysts, and price action back over a recent average with stronger volume.

Inside the window, AGIO rose, but it did not reach the $51.58 target. The peak was $41.74 on 2025-07-23, with a 17.3% peak gain. It never got there. The window ended on 2025-09-30 at $40.14, so the thesis partially played out on direction, but missed its stated target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All AGIO signals