Track record · closed signal

Antero Resources Corporation (AR) — closed signal from January 20, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 20, 2026 — +8.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

AR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$32.50 – $34.25Entry zone — fair-value band

$33.85Published — price the day we called it

$41.30Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$45.75Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$36.68Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 55 days.

At window close

+8.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+35.2%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+4.9%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$36.68

last close inside the window, ended April 20, 2026

Peak price

$45.75

peak on March 30, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published January 20, 2026

Predicted growth

+22%

over the measurement window

Target price

$41.30

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$32.50 – $34.25

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$33.85

published January 20, 2026

Confidence

74%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

This is a short-term trade idea based on the stock trying to recover after recent selling. Two big company events - a $750M debt deal to help buy HG Energy II and an earnings report coming in February - could quickly change expectations. The stock can be volatile, so the plan is to enter in stages near the lower price area and expect choppy moves.

Primary drivers

The acquisition and its financing could change growth expectations
Earnings coming soon could sharply change investor views
Energy price moves can make the stock rise faster than peers
If sellers tire, the stock could bounce back quickly

How it played out

AR: target reached in 55 days

Lyra published AR at $33.85 on January 20, 2026, with 22% expected growth and a $41.30 target. The thesis pointed to the HG Energy II acquisition and its $750M debt financing, the February earnings report, energy price moves, and a possible bounce if sellers tired. It also warned that moves could be choppy.

Inside the window, AR reached the target in 55 days. The stock peaked at $45.75 on March 30, 2026, above the $41.30 target, with a 35.2% peak gain. It ended the window at $36.68. The thesis played out.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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