Track record · closed signal

Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) — closed signal from January 19, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 19, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

LRCX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$223.20 Published $258.91 Target $267.60 Window close $273.43 Peak
$210.00 – $223.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$223.20Published — price the day we called it
$258.91Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$273.43Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$267.60Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 81 days.

Peak price
$273.43
peak on April 14, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+22.5%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$267.60
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
81
Window
January 19, 2026 – April 19, 2026

The thesis — published January 19, 2026

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$258.91
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$210.00 – $223.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$223.20
published January 19, 2026
Confidence
72%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Lam Research is benefiting from positive news about US-Taiwan tariff cuts, which makes the chip supply chain outlook better. Demand for equipment used in making AI and memory chips supports expectations for orders. The stock leads the sector and can move fast, so it's safer to wait for a controlled dip and buy as it starts to form higher lows.

Primary drivers

  • Tariff cuts improving how people feel about the supply chain
  • Spending on equipment for AI and memory chip production
  • Money rotating into chip stocks could keep interest high
  • Stock is volatile, so buying on dips is usually safer

How it played out

LRCX: target reached in 81 days

Lyra published LRCX at $223.20 on 2026-01-19 with an expected gain of 16%. The thesis pointed to tariff cuts helping supply-chain sentiment, spending on equipment for artificial intelligence and memory chip production, rotation into chip stocks, and the stock's volatility as a reason to wait for dips.

Inside the window, the stock reached the target in 81 days. It peaked at $273.43 on 2026-04-14, above the $258.91 target, with a peak gain of 22.5%. It ended the window at $267.60. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-28, Lam Research reported fiscal second-quarter earnings of $1.27 per share on revenue of $5.34 billion, and gave current-quarter guidance of $1.35 per share on sales of $5.7 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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