Track record · closed signal

AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) — closed signal from January 19, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 19, 2026 — +9.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

AZN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$187.42 Published $422.87 Target $204.80 Window close $210.50 Peak
$360.38 – $376.05Entry zone — fair-value band
$187.42Published — price the day we called it
$422.87Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$210.50Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$204.80Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 88% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close
+9.3%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+12.3%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$204.80
last close inside the window, ended April 19, 2026
Peak price
$210.50
peak on February 18, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published January 19, 2026

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$422.87
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$360.38 – $376.05
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$187.42
published January 19, 2026
Confidence
74%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

AstraZeneca has several upcoming events that could move the stock: progress in a lupus study, European review of a key cancer drug pairing, and a China deal for a cell therapy program. Recent weakness makes it likely the stock could bounce when news lands, but short-term moves may follow headlines rather than fundamentals, so treat as a defined-risk trade.

Primary drivers

  • Lupus study updates could prove immunology growth
  • EU review of ENHERTU + pertuzumab may boost oncology views
  • China rights deal adds value to cell therapy plans
  • News items can spark a short-term tradable rebound

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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