Track record · closed signal

Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) — closed signal from January 19, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 19, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

AMAT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$328.60 Published $387.75 Target $396.94 Window close $407.29 Peak
$310.00 – $330.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$328.60Published — price the day we called it
$387.75Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$407.29Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$396.94Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 37 days.

Peak price
$407.29
peak on April 10, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+23.9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$396.94
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
37
Window
January 19, 2026 – April 19, 2026

The thesis — published January 19, 2026

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$387.75
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$310.00 – $330.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$328.60
published January 19, 2026
Confidence
73%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Applied Materials makes the machines and software that chip factories use. Right now more companies are spending on chips because of AI, and news easing trade worries is helping sentiment. The stock has moved a lot already, so it makes sense to wait for a reasonable pullback before buying, since interest-rate moves can hit chip-equipment stocks hard.

Primary drivers

  • More chip factories spending because of AI demand
  • Trade tensions easing improves confidence in chip supply chains
  • More stocks joining the rally can bring extra buying demand
  • Rising interest rates can hurt expensive hardware stocks

How it played out

AMAT: target reached in 37 days

Lyra published AMAT on 2026-01-19 at $328.60 with an 18% expected gain and a $387.75 target. The thesis pointed to chip-factory spending tied to artificial intelligence demand, easing trade worries, broader rally participation, and the risk that rising interest rates could hurt expensive hardware stocks.

Inside the window, the stock reached the target in 37 days. It later peaked at $407.29 on 2026-04-10, up 23.9%, and ended the window at $396.94. The published thesis played out. The stock did more than reach the target, and it still finished above it at the end of the measurement period.

What happened during the window

On February 12, 2026, Applied Materials reported fiscal first-quarter adjusted earnings of $2.38 per share on sales of $7.01 billion, and it guided fiscal second-quarter sales to $7.65 billion. The same report said AMAT rose over 9% after hours to $360.47.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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