Track record · closed signal

Harmony Gold Mining Company Ltd. (HMY) — closed signal from July 19, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 17, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

HMY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$13.89 Published $17.98 Target $19.96 Window close $22.25 Peak
$13.10 – $13.69Entry zone — fair-value band
$13.89Published — price the day we called it
$17.98Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$22.25Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$19.96Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 66 days.

Peak price
$22.25
peak on October 16, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+60.2%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$19.96
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
66
Window
July 19, 2025 – October 17, 2025

The thesis — published July 19, 2025

Predicted growth
+30%
over the measurement window
Target price
$17.98
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$13.10 – $13.69
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$13.89
published July 19, 2025
Confidence
65%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

The share price fell because gold dipped for a moment, yet the metal still trades above $2,300 an ounce. A big bank just started covering the stock. Harmony is also moving into copper and the weaker South African rand helps its costs, but rising expenses are a warning sign. If gold and copper stay firm, the share could climb back toward $19-$20 by the end of the year.

Primary drivers

  • Gold above $2,300 means each extra dollar of price can quickly boost profits
  • Buying the Eva copper project adds a second metal, giving the company new income
  • The share looks deeply oversold, and past drops like this often snapped back over 30%
  • New analyst coverage and a 75% rise this year keep money coming in, yet rising costs worry

How it played out

HMY: target reached in 66 days

Lyra published HMY at $13.89 on 2025-07-19 with a short-term thesis for 30% growth toward $17.98. The thesis pointed to gold above $2,300, the Eva copper project, an oversold setup after the drop, new analyst coverage, a 75% rise that kept money coming in, and rising costs as a warning sign.

Inside the window, the stock reached the target in 66 days. It later peaked at $22.25 on 2025-10-16, with a 60.2% gain. It ended the window at $19.96. The thesis played out, and the move went beyond the published target.

What happened during the window

On 2025-08-28, Harmony Gold reported fiscal 2025 results. The company said earnings rose, production fell to 46,023 kilograms from 48,578 kilograms, and adjusted free cash flow was $614 million.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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