Track record · closed signal

Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) — closed signal from January 18, 2026

Missed Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 18, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

COF price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$239.14 Published $275.01 Target $200.71 Window close $237.98 Peak
$230.00 – $242.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$239.14Published — price the day we called it
$275.01Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$237.98Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$200.71Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Missed

Never rose above the publication price inside the window.

Peak price
$237.98
peak on January 22, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
-0.5%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$200.71
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
January 18, 2026 – April 18, 2026

The thesis — published January 18, 2026

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$275.01
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$230.00 – $242.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$239.14
published January 18, 2026
Confidence
67%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Capital One fell mainly because a proposed cap on card interest rates spooked investors. If that proposal loses momentum or gets delayed, the stock could bounce back quickly as investors return to normal positions. The main danger is more regulatory headlines that keep the stock swinging; stay small until the news settles and the price shows a stable base.

Primary drivers

  • Could bounce if the policy scare fades and traders return
  • Credit-card business can rebound quickly when risk appetite rises
  • Ongoing regulatory headlines can keep price swings large
  • Clear entry range helps keep potential losses smaller

How it played out

COF: the thesis did not play out

Lyra published COF on 2026-01-18 at $239.14. The thesis expected 15% growth, with a target of $275.01. It pointed to a possible bounce if the policy scare faded, a quick rebound in the credit-card business if risk appetite improved, and the risk that regulatory headlines could keep price swings large.

Inside the window, COF peaked at $237.98 on 2026-01-22, with a peak gain of -0.5%. It stayed below the target and never reached it. The window ended at $200.71. The thesis missed.

What happened during the window

On 2026-01-22, The Wall Street Journal reported that Capital One agreed to buy Brex for $5.15 billion and that quarterly net income rose to $2.1 billion. This was reported during the measurement window, but it was not a stated cause of the stock move here.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All COF signals