Track record · closed signal

Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) — closed signal from January 17, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on April 17, 2026.

Predicted vs. what happened

AMAT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$327.01 Published $385.87 Target $396.94 Window close $407.29 Peak
$310.00 – $327.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$327.01Published — price the day we called it
$385.87Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$407.29Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$396.94Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 39 days.

Peak price
$407.29
peak on April 10, 2026 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+24.5%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$396.94
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
39
Window
January 17, 2026 – April 17, 2026

The thesis — published January 17, 2026

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$385.87
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$310.00 – $327.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$327.01
published January 17, 2026
Confidence
78%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Applied Materials could keep doing well if demand for chips driven by AI keeps pushing factories to buy more tools. The stock rose while the market fell, helped by news of a big Taiwan-U.S. chip investment plan. It's already moved a lot, so a safer short-term approach is to wait for a pullback and buy only if the price steadies.

Primary drivers

  • More factory tool orders as chip demand from AI grows
  • AMAT outperformed the market, showing steady buying interest
  • Big Taiwan-U.S. investment news boosts sector outlook
  • Buying on pullbacks helps limit downside after a strong rise

How it played out

AMAT: target reached in 39 days

Lyra published AMAT at 327.01 on 2026-01-17 with an 18% short-term expected gain. The thesis pointed to more factory tool orders as chip demand from artificial intelligence grew, steady buying interest while the market fell, Taiwan-U.S. investment news, and waiting for pullbacks after a strong rise.

Inside the window, AMAT reached the 385.87 target in 39 days. It peaked at 407.29 on 2026-04-10, with a 24.5% gain. It ended the window at 396.94. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2026-02-12, Applied Materials reported fiscal first-quarter adjusted earnings of $2.38 per share on $7.01 billion in revenue. It also guided for fiscal second-quarter adjusted earnings of $2.64 per share on $7.65 billion in revenue.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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